THE PERSISTENT IRRITATION

SAGE advice for heads up play

[EDITOR'S NOTE: The Persistent Irritation is pleased to welcome guest blogger Jeff H.]

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It’s Friday night. I'm knee deep in an end game against Pedro S., a good, aggressive heads up player. In the big blind, I have Q9 offsuit, a stronger than average hand. Pedro only completes the SB, which looks weak, so I raise three times the BB. He comes back over the top and I suddenly have the sinking feeling that he is slow playing a monster. I either have to commit all my chips or fold.

How would you play it?

After hours of grueling tournament play, going heads up in the finale can be both the most important and confusing part of the game. The difference between 1st and 2nd is often a factor of two in the payoff, so half of your winnings depend on good heads up play. Yet by the time you get to heads up you are tired, you may have a few beers under your belt, and the patience that got you to this point may be waning. It can be hard to know what to do.

Luckily, there is a mathematical solution to help you out. It goes by the name of SAGE (Sit and Go Endgame), the main elements of which are simple enough to memorize or put on a 3x5 card.

How would you play it?

The Persistent Irritation is back from its annual summer hiatus. Let us waste no time in analyzing some hypotheticals, shall we?

Suppose you're in a $1-2 no limit cash game, with nine players including yourself. The players are average-to-good, with a few wild players and one geezer who only plays strong hands.

You're in the small blind. Player 3 (under the gun) folds; seat 4 raises to $6 and gets 4 callers before it gets to you. There's now $27 in the pot (4 callers plus 1.5 blinds). You look down and see:

What do you do?

Would a surge be too little, too late?

Last week’s win elevates Ben into second place and puts him near striking distance of Jeff H. Pedro S. and Brent C. still have a slight chance, too, but it would take some strong play, big pots, and a few critically timed physics conferences to create any kind of an opportunity. Chris L. and Josh A. need nothing short of a miracle.

But with less than three months left in the season, time is the biggest impediment. The season ends no later than September 13; that's 13 weeks at best. Over the past nine months, RPL has held 12 games. At that pace, we can expect 4 more, but with summer upon us, three is probably a more reasonable expectation.

All about the Benjamins

Weak players got strong. Strong players got stronger. Chatty players got quieter. But in the end, all that mattered was that Ben M. got the best of everyone, taking home $159 as the winner of Game 12.

Ben's key to success still is his bluffing ability, but his increased skill in playing position is making his bluffs more of a threat. When he's near the button, there's no telling what he's got; even if you know he's got junk, it's hard to make that call when he's betting behind you.

Sean M.'s game continues to improve, as demonstrated by his second place ($80) finish. He loves inducing competitors to chase draws, reeling them in with tiny bets that give great odds but rarely produce great returns. This is Sean's second time in the money this year; he also had an $80 second place finish on December 16.

Roderick rounded out the money winners, taking $27 for third place.

A neat trick

Consider the following tournament scenario:

1. You are in middle position with a pretty good stack (which is to say, not short stacked)

2. You get a few limpers on your right

3. You have an Ace with a middle kicker or a suited King and middle kicker

A good strategy is to go all-in. This gives you a good opportunity to steal the blinds and all those bets that limped in before you. As for the people on your left, they'll want to steer clear because the pot odds don't make it worth it unless, of course, they have a high pair or big slick. When I am considering this play, I pay attention to the people on my left, to see if there are any indications that they have a hand worth keeping. 

Suppose I'm in the fifth seat, blinds are $5-10 and two people limp in in front of me. There's $35 in the pot. Suppose I have A-9 and a $175 stack and raise all-in. The action comes to you and you're holding 8-8. 

Do you want to make that call? Sure, you're a 3:2 favorite, but is that enough for you to risk your whole stack? And besides, what if I really have a higher pair, or someone else to your left has a better pair? Then you're really in trouble.

I used this play a few times during Game 11, much to the frustration of the people on my right. People knew I didn't have a made hand, but neither the blinds nor the limpers wanted to challenge it. It just wasn't worth it.

In fact, in one instance I did this with A-9 off-suit. The all-in bet pushed Jeff H. out of the hand, and he was on the button with A-10. So, when used correctly, the system works. Give it a shot next time you have th opportunity.

Viva Pedro!

Sorry for the delay.... computer problems kept me from posting this earlier. Hats off to Pedro for a big win against eight others in Game 11 of the 2007-2008 season. This is the second time he's bested Jeff H. in heads up action.

Moving Day

Peter S. proved victorious at Game 10 of the the 2007-2008 poker season, winning $180 and moving into ninth place in the overall standings.  Brent C.'s second place finish bumped him up to the number three slot, ahead of Chris L. and just behind second seeded Ben M. Roderick D. rounded out the money winners in third.

More importantly, the whisky co-op is taking root, with Brent C. making the latest contribution. Hopefully others will add to the pot in coming weeks and months.

Heads up above the rest

Ben M. brought his A game on Friday, besting eight others in Friday's RPL tournament. The $180 win doubled his yearly earnings and moves him to second place in the overall standings.

Meanwhile, Jeff H.'s second place finish keeps him well out in front in the overall standings with $685. Chris L. finished third; a bit of surprise considering his erratic and sometimes god-awful play.

Could he be the best heads up player in the league?

Nine players have made it to the heads up round this year, but no one has shown as much poise and control as Ben M. Both of his wins have come at the expense of Jeff H.

Speaking of Jeff H... Yes, he's still on a bit of tear, racking up a whopping 28 percent of the winnings to date (last year he finished with 31 percent). However, as was stated last Friday: He bleeds, so he's human. Or something to that effect. The point is that he can be beaten. For the second time in four games, Ben M. proven that it can be done. And a quick analysis shows that you can, too.

Jeff H. played in eight of the nine games we've had this year. He took first place in two games and finished second, third or out of the money altogether in the remaining six. In those six games, a total of seven players finished higher than him.

We're only two-thirds through the season and it's still anybody's ball game. Jeff may be winning the popular vote but there are still plenty of superdelegates to be counted. Simply put, it ain't over yet.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

Jeff H. does it again, pulling off another stunning victory after being on the ring ropes for much of the middle portion of the game. How does he do it? And more importantly, how do we take him down?

Anger bet management

A bad beat. An annoying drunk at the other side of the table. Troubles at home. They're all triggers for an anger bet. And as many of us know, an anger bet can be the most costly maneuver in poker.

Over at the RPL, we get our fair share of anger bets, although for the most part the rage tends to be directed inward toward the individual, a self-flagellation for poor play. Invariably, this behavior is exploited by other players for comedic effect more than actual financial gain.

A cash game among strangers is a different story. Angry  players don't like jokes. And more often than not, they don't like you. 

Finding the angry bettor is easy. He's the one with his chair pulled tight to the table and is hovering over his chips. He's complains repeatedly to the guy next to him about how he was wronged, and generally puts all of his emotions on display for everyone to read. He's on tilt, and poised to make his next big mistake.

Consider this recent example:

An early position player is Super Loose, playing every hand and making big raises on every flop. He's won six, seven, eight hands in a row, and many at the table are getting testy. No one has the guts to go against him, and it's clear that he's exploiting this fear.

Fear leads to anger.

A late position player, having been smacked around by Super Loose a few times, finally gets a hand and goes in hard. A monster bet clears the field of everyone except Super Loose and a strong player in middle position. Everyone at the table is thrilled to see Super Loose go down. You can see it in Angry Late's eyes; clearly, this is about more than just the money.

Anger leads to hate.

Fourth street hits. Angry Late bets hard, Super Loose calls, as does the other remaining player.

Fifth street brings nothing, and Angry Late knows he's sunk Super Loose. He bets hard again. Super Loose calls. So does Middle Strong.

Hole cards are flipped and indeed, Angry Late beats Super Loose. Only problem is, Middle Strong beat them both.

Hate leads to suffering.

Angry Late focused his game only on the object of his ire. Any reasonable player would have seen that Middle Strong was the real threat. Middle Strong knew he was playing against low cards and high emotions. His  smooth calls kept the focus on the other players. Not once did either player even give Middle Strong a passing glance. And in the end, he took down a huge pot.

Ironically, Angry Late took some satisfaction in besting Super Loose. A small consolation, I suppose.