Fear and loathing in early position

It's been a long time since we've enjoyed any analysis here at the PI. I wish I had a good excuse. There have been plenty of games at home and just over the border, during which I've certainly played a multitude of questionable hands, got caught in easily identifiable traps, and cursed at myself uncontrollably for barreling headfirst into a wall of unprofitable sessions.

Of all these, however,  one play still sticks in my head; one that I still have been unable to reconcile. And so I ask, my nine faithful readers (or is it ten by now?), How would you play it?

Consider the following scenario:

A $1-2 no limit game, nine players. You just sat down and have yet to play a hand. You have $160 in chips and are under the gun (UTG) with AK unsuited.

You raise 5x the blind ($10). Ball Cap next to you calls. Two others fold until it gets to the Seventh Seat, who pushes $22 all in. Everyone else (including small and big blinds) folds. You call; Ball Cap calls. After the rake, there is $63 in the pot with Seventh Seat all-in.  You have $138 left in your stack.

Flop comes:

What to do? First, let's think this one through aloud.

Recent history:

1. Ball Cap called your 5x raise pretty quickly and he's pretty much out of position, too, as he is sitting right next to you in the 4th seat.

2. You called the all-in raise pretty quickly, as did Ball Cap. It could be that everyone was playing the pot odds, but he's got to have something, right?

Game history:

1. You just sat down so you don't know how Ball Cap plays.

2. Historically, you hate playing AK. Because you agree that AK looks pretty but never wins.

Hypotheses Part A - what Ball Cap has:

1. He has pocket aces. Possible, though wouldn't he have re-raised pre-flop? He had two opportunities to do so.

2. He made a set. Hmmm... probably not kings as they would lead a person to re-raise preflop much like aces. Queens makes more sense. He could have a set of queens easy enough. Jacks, too. That would explain the lack of a re-raise, as no one likes playing jacks.

3. He flopped a straight. An AT straight is possible, a T9 straight much less likely. Do people call a 5x raise in early position with AT? Sometimes. Do they call it with T9? Not so much.

4. He's on a draw to a straight, possible with a pair. AK, AQ, AJ all seem like possibilities. Other viable options are TT, 99, maybe even 88 are possibilities.

5. Two pair? It's possible, though KQ would probably be the only scenario. I mean, who's going to put $22 in the pot with QJ in early/middle position? Even if it's suited, that seems unlikely. But KQ? Yeah, that could happen.

6. He's got junk. Not likely.

7. Flush draw, obviously, not an issue.

Hypotheses Part B - what Ball Cap thinks you have:

You raised UTG and made a quick call on the all-in bet. He knows that you just sat down, and no one likes to play fancy when they haven't yet even taken off their coat. So, Ball Cap needs to be respectful of you. He's gonna have you on AA, AK, QQ, JJ, with a small chance that you have AQ suited or TT. Therefore, he knows he's up against top pair, top kicker; a set, or; an over pair with a straight draw.

Hypotheses Part C - your outs:

How good is your hand right now? How many outs do you have to make a great hand? Will another ace help or hurt you? What about a king? A ten will get you the straight, but you only have a 16.5% chance of that happening.

Three aces, two kings and four tens are unaccounted. That's nine outs, or about a 36% chance. But is it realistic believe that that Seventh Seat went all in without an ace or a king in his hand?

And what about Ball Cap? If our hypotheses put him on AQ, AK or AA, that means even fewer outs out there.

To be on the safe side, I'd assume we're only dealing with 7 outs at the most, which means that, at best, there is only about a 28% chance that your hand will improve at the turn or the river.

Options:

1. A check is not an option, as it turns control over to Ball Cap. Any bet he makes is going to make you all cringy inside and you will fold. And given the money in the pot and the cards on the flop, you know he isn't going to check.

1a. That said, I guess folding is always an option, and a check would be the best way to go about it.

2. How about a continuation bet, something along the lines of $20? This make sense if you are believe he has junk or a 99 pair or worse. Do you really believe that?

3. There's always the half-pot bet. $32 seems like an easy call for winning hands  (set, two pair, a made straight, AA) and a few losing hands (AQ, AJ). TT might fold. This means about a third of your stack is in the pot.

4. Pot bet... now that's a threat, right? A pot bet shows that you want to take the pot down now. $63 more means you have $85 total in the pot, with $75 left in your stack. What does this bet represent to Ball Cap? Are you saying you have a set and fear the straight, or that you have two pair and fear everything else? Is anyone going to read you as AK?

A pot bet should clear the the draws, maybe AA (though I have my doubts), AQ and AJ, and TT and below. Ball Cap might even fold AK. Made straights and sets are probably in it to win it still, and will go over the top on you. Two pair is probably a smooth call.

5. All-in bet. But wait a minute, you just sat down! Oh crap, what does this mean?  What can you shake with an all in bet that you couldn't shake with a pot bet? AA? AK? Two pair? Maybe a set of jacks or queens?

Decision:

You tell me. Be sure to show your work.

 - PI -

Comments

[Sean Carroll]

AA or KK are too strong to fit Dude's preflop action; AJ or KQ or 99 or worse are too weak. AK, QQ and JJ fit perfectly; AQ maybe; TT maybe. So that's 6 hands crushing you (3 QQ, 3 JJ); 6 with which you are tied (AK); 15 hands you are beating (9 AQ, 6 TT, given what's already out), but those are less likely per hand -- maybe as likely overall as the QQ or JJ hands. A pretty even distribution.

Dude is not going to fold trips on the flop; your actions don't fit AT, and a guy can't worry about trips over trips. Probably would call at least one bet with AK, and probably would fold AQ. TT would fold to a large bet, but call a small enough one, with as many as ten possible outs (aces, nines, tens).

I would put in a bet just a bit more than half the pot; if called, hope to check it down. Fold to any raise on the flop or turn. I might work up the courage to call if he called the flop and checked the turn and then bet the river, unless the river card was one of those outs for the TT hand.

One could make a case that you should have shoved all-in after the raise from seat 7; AK plays best when it's guaranteed to see all 5 cards, and you'd be denying pot odds. But I'm not sure.

[ranckle]

BTW for those keeping track, I changed "Dude" to "Ball Cap" whilst Sean was writing his response.

[Jeff H]

If you could have shoved all-in after the raise I think that would
have been best. Ball Cap almost surely has to fold, and you are
heads up for a $52 pot with AK which is not a bad place to be. But I think casino rules require an all-in raise that is double the original
raise in order to reraise, so I think you are stuck calling and having to play AK out of position. By the way, you didn't say how big a stack Ball Cap had. That matters. I think he could easily call your raise with smaller pocket pairs and even suited connectors, hoping for more callers and a then a flop that hits him hard enough to take your stack (if he has you covered he needs roughly 15-1 odds for this and he has 16-1. Plus people call with these hands even without correct odds). So I put him on a larger range than Sean. I've seen people call an UTG raise for $10
with 86s at those games. So I think you are ahead of him much
of the time and need to make him pay if he has a draw. I like a 2/3 pot sized bet, but if he raises you you're in a really tough spot. If he calls, reevaluate on the turn, but there will be a lot of
money in the pot and it would be hard to fold. Tough spot.

[ranckle]

Ball Cap had $400+.

I agree with both of your assessments. A re-raise pre-flop to isolate the all-in would have been the correct call. Seventh seat re-raised $12; a minimum re-raise would have been $10. So, I could have raised up a third time for another $10. At least, I think I could have.

But as we all know, what you're supposed to do and what you actually are capable of doing are often two different things. AK looks awfully weak when you're in the third seat.

The lack of a re-raise is my first error. So now the question is how to get out of the jam in which I've placed myself.

[Jeff H]

OK. I've decided I like the 1/2 pot bet option for the following reasons.

1. If he has a smaller pocket pair or something else that missed the flop he has to figure you have him beat and are just trying to extract some value from him so he will fold and you take down the pot with no more worries.

2. If he has 2 pair or a set he has to figure there's a good chance
you have an A and he really shouldn't call but should raise so as to deny you odds for the straight draw. If he raises you can afford to get away from the hand.

3. If he just calls there is a good chance he has an A or T in his
hand and perhaps 2nd or 3rd pair. AQ, AJ, JT. Or he could slow play JT. In any event you get more info and can reevaluate after the turn.

You gonna tell us what happened next?

[Jeff H]

Should have said slow play T9 above.